Evidence analysis of the YUCLAW-covered 54.6% of disclosed XLK weight. This is not a full-fund inference. XLK is the second sector lens: it was activated because it passed the published admission standard — not because of popularity.
e5f9e680f402 ·
holdings as of 2026-07-29 · last build 2026-08-12 23:01 UTCTop-1 covered 14.85% · top-3 37.27% · top-5 44.69% of full-fund weight (largest: AAPL).
| Uncovered — reason | Weight | Names |
|---|---|---|
| outside the 79-ticker scoring universe | 45.34% | 65 |
| not disclosed / rounding residual | 0.07% | 1 |
Evidence coverage per covered constituent — how much evidence stands under this classification — coverage, not prediction (Evidence Coverage v1, registered protocol). Names outside the 79-name scoring universe print an em-dash: the registered computation covers U79 only.
| Name | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|
| AAPL | 73 |
| AMAT | 73 |
| AMD | 95 |
| DELL | 89 |
| HPE | 95 |
| INTC | 79 |
| LRCX | 90 |
| MRVL | 94 |
| MSFT | 96 |
| MU | 91 |
| NVDA | 85 |
| Estimand | Mean CAR | Conservative envelope | Formal two-way CI (CGM) | Badge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E1 event-weighted | -11.14% | (-18.66, -4.30) | (-17.11, -5.18) | PRELIMINARY |
| E2 issuer-weighted | -6.99% | (-13.91, -1.74) | (-12.98, -1.00) | PRELIMINARY |
| E3 ETF-weighted | -6.69% | (-12.65, +0.01) | (-9.99, -3.38) | DESCRIPTIVE |
| E4 capped-ETF-weighted — PRIMARY | -6.92% | (-13.39, -1.34) | (-10.72, -3.12) | PRELIMINARY |
Falsification (registered secondaries): event-date-shuffle percentile 0.115; direction sign-flip percentile 0.008; pre-event placebo -0.62%. Extremity is read two-sided. The sign-flip result is extreme while the date-shuffle result is not — the adverse alignment survives direction randomization, but an era-generic component cannot be excluded at this sample. Reported as measured. Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.
107 events → 4 stories → 16.1 effective (design effect 6.653; issuer-level 77.6). Top story 77.6% of event mass. Many events, fewer stories — statistics on this page use cluster-aware inference accordingly.
| Story size | Mass | Dominant issuer | Dominant type |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 77.6% | DELL | INSIDER_SELL |
| 20 | 18.7% | MRVL | INSIDER_SELL |
| 2 | 1.9% | INTC | EXEC_CHANGE |
| 2 | 1.9% | INTC | EXEC_CHANGE |
| Event type | n | Peak day | Half-life |
|---|---|---|---|
| INSIDER_SELL | 34 | 20 | not reached within window |
An absolute cumulative path rises mechanically with horizon — a window-edge peak with no half-life is what no-decay looks like under this estimator. Below the floor, listed not plotted: M_AND_A_CLOSE (n=12), EXEC_CHANGE (n=4), OTHER_MATERIAL (n=3), M_AND_A_ANNOUNCE (n=1). Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.
| Context cell | E4 estimate | Cluster CI | Badge |
|---|---|---|---|
| k=5 (backfill) | -0.94% | (-5.25, +1.01) | DESCRIPTIVE |
| k=10 (backfill) | -3.97% | (-10.43, -1.03) | PRELIMINARY |
| k=20 backfill (base) | -6.92% | (-11.45, -2.83) | PRELIMINARY |
| k=60 (backfill only) | -7.35% | (-23.61, +3.87) | DESCRIPTIVE |
| trend>=0 (k=20 bf) | empty — SPY history begins 2026-02-02 (own-data rule) | ||
| trend<0 (k=20 bf) | empty — SPY history begins 2026-02-02 (own-data rule) | ||
| vol-high (k=20 bf) | -5.03% | (-19.10, +4.46) | DESCRIPTIVE |
| vol-low (k=20 bf) | -8.07% | (-12.55, -3.01) | PRELIMINARY |
| era: live (k=20) | +8.43% | (+0.77, +14.63) | PRELIMINARY |
Sign held 6/7 (coherence 0.857) · breaks: era: live (k=20). Investment implication: none established — no buy, sell, or alpha conclusion is supported by this page.
Rendered from one shared source (v3/web/useful_blocks.py) on every page that shows it,
so the copies cannot drift. Statuses are measured, not aspirational.